There is also CNOOC and some Indian state owned energy stocks that can be peers... The Latam Substack guy did a podcast w/ an Brazilian oil expert recently who noted the private sector Brazilian oil stocks that deal with the smaller and depleted fields that a bureaucratic behemoth like Petrobras does not want to deal with can take oil out for as low as a few dollars a barrel... And you don't have the political issues that come with state owned or controlled companies.....
No political issues, but lower quality reserves and higher chances of getting screwed by insiders. Depends all on valuation. Do you have any interesting names?
Brazil's Oil & Gas Market, Petrobras, and Brazil's Oil Future - with Frederico Nobre (Latam Stocks) 42:14 Minutes (November 2023)
"In this episode I talk to Frederico Nobre, Head of Research at Brazilian brokerage Warren. He is also an analyst specialized in commodities companies, especially Brazil’s Oil & Gas sector. We talk about Frederico’s background, including his time covering Petrobras at Reuters. Then we do a deep dive into Petrobras; past, present, and future. Finally we talk about some of the other Oil & Gas companies in Brazil like PetroRio (PRIO3)." https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AC6xhhGQ1EI / https://twitter.com/LatamStocks/status/1721564390208532737
The stocks I then covered in my post which may have been mentioned in the interview or would be the other players in Brazil oil:
From the interview, I had noted that it was said that these companies would pay high taxes - like everyone in Brazil... Not sure about "getting screwed by insiders" (I am based in Asia and know all about how that happens out here...🤣) Was mentioned that corporate governance at Petrobras had improved and this is something people investors may not fully understand...
As I mentioned in another comment, I know the Latam Substack guy recently did a podcast w/ a Brazilian oil expert who noted the private sector Brazilian oil stocks that deal with the smaller and depleted fields that a bureaucratic behemoth like Petrobras does not want to deal with can take oil out for as low as a few dollars a barrel - and you don't have all the political noise that comes with Petrobras...
Totally agree people are giving Petrobras only credit for the dividend. Stock is still cheap!
Just wondering why no one is comparing Petrobras to Saudi Aramco 🤔
These state controlled companies do not have to trade with a pe below 5.
There is also CNOOC and some Indian state owned energy stocks that can be peers... The Latam Substack guy did a podcast w/ an Brazilian oil expert recently who noted the private sector Brazilian oil stocks that deal with the smaller and depleted fields that a bureaucratic behemoth like Petrobras does not want to deal with can take oil out for as low as a few dollars a barrel... And you don't have the political issues that come with state owned or controlled companies.....
No political issues, but lower quality reserves and higher chances of getting screwed by insiders. Depends all on valuation. Do you have any interesting names?
Had written about this Nov 9: https://emergingmarketskeptic.substack.com/p/em-fund-stock-picks-commentary-november-9-2023
Brazil's Oil & Gas Market, Petrobras, and Brazil's Oil Future - with Frederico Nobre (Latam Stocks) 42:14 Minutes (November 2023)
"In this episode I talk to Frederico Nobre, Head of Research at Brazilian brokerage Warren. He is also an analyst specialized in commodities companies, especially Brazil’s Oil & Gas sector. We talk about Frederico’s background, including his time covering Petrobras at Reuters. Then we do a deep dive into Petrobras; past, present, and future. Finally we talk about some of the other Oil & Gas companies in Brazil like PetroRio (PRIO3)." https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AC6xhhGQ1EI / https://twitter.com/LatamStocks/status/1721564390208532737
The stocks I then covered in my post which may have been mentioned in the interview or would be the other players in Brazil oil:
1) 3r Petroleum Oleo E Gas Sa (BVMF: RRRP3)
2) Enauta Participacoes Sa (BVMF: ENAT3)
3) Petroreconcavo Sa (BVMF: RECV3)
4) Prio SA (BVMF: PRIO3)
[I did a short writeup about a similar stock based here in Petronas dominated Malaysia: https://emergingmarketskeptic.substack.com/p/hibiscus-petroleum-production-from-mature-assets/comments ]
From the interview, I had noted that it was said that these companies would pay high taxes - like everyone in Brazil... Not sure about "getting screwed by insiders" (I am based in Asia and know all about how that happens out here...🤣) Was mentioned that corporate governance at Petrobras had improved and this is something people investors may not fully understand...
Their own projections (from the Strategic Plan 2024-2028) for next 5 years:
$40b-$45b dividend (may include share buybacks)
$5b-$10b potential extraordinary dividends (may include buybacks)
At midpoint this is $10b / year or 9.4% yield on current PBR.A price.
Note that the 2023-2027 projected more dividends.
The 2025-2029 strategic plan could be different yet again!
But of course you don't have to value stocks solely based on their dividend yield :)
OT : had some family leave auckland for melbourne in 2019 and they regret it.
any thoughts?
mostly cost, density, friends. the kids are prioritizing job offers entirely out of oz.
I linked to this piece and a couple of others on Petrobras in my links post for today: https://emergingmarketskeptic.substack.com/p/emerging-markets-week-march-18-2024
As I mentioned in another comment, I know the Latam Substack guy recently did a podcast w/ a Brazilian oil expert who noted the private sector Brazilian oil stocks that deal with the smaller and depleted fields that a bureaucratic behemoth like Petrobras does not want to deal with can take oil out for as low as a few dollars a barrel - and you don't have all the political noise that comes with Petrobras...