14 Comments

Hi, How do you view Lilak going forward? is FCF finally coming in Q4 and beyond? merry Xmas

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Hi Olivier, Merry Christmas!

I honestly don't know if Lilak will sort out Puerto Rico next year and I don't think management does either.

The price reaction looks overdone in my view considering Lilak's divisions are siloed by region, so in an absolute worst case scenario they could wind down the business with other operations and leverage unaffected. I don't think it will come to that though.

In investors favour is that one of the directors has bought a huge number of shares since the announcement and Balan has also bought, but in a more modest way. Hopefully it's a sign that they're confident with what they're seeing behind the scenes.

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will be following closely!

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Congrats on the solid half. Is there any good writeup on Osisko mining?

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Thanks for a nice update! Interesting you not only are light on the US market, but avoid all other developed markets except for GB as well.

Any reasons in particular that you avoid Japan and continental Europe? I find quality companies there with reasonable valuations.

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Hi mate, I think I remember replying to this at the time, but I can't see my comment. Do you remember me replying?

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Hi mate, not sure. You usually reply very consistently. I think we had some discussion about it. Something along the lines that you have a better understanding of UK than rest of Europe and more positive about developing economies.

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Jul 2
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I still feel a bit uneasy with Japan as well. More comfortable with Japan than Mexico though. In the perception of a lot of investors Japan is treated as an EM. I like the conservative financial structures and the huge equity premium compared to bonds.

With Mexico I think interest rates will come down which might give the index some additional lift.

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Jul 2
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Japan growth is depressed (https://x.com/InvestInJapan/status/1806193192146223134) , but balance sheet value plays are imo over hyped for cyclical or weak businesses imo

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Jul 2
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Recently bought a position in KSB ag a German multinational manufacturer of pumps and valves.

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depressing landmark in the u.s. judicial system today, making november possibly worse. so your review was a welcome distraction.

we have some overlap via your top positions...thankfully my broker prevents me from buying into illiquid foreign listings.

there is a long and bumpy path for s.korea to get the 'japan' effect, and for liquid largecap value like ft and kepco, that means dividend reform. not imminent, so not sure what will ever be a catalyst. look there for undervalued smidcap growth if you can.

https://www.eastcapital.com/media/h1vitss3/korea-s-corporate-value-up-program-a-new-era-for-equity-investors.pdf

ck hutchinson always triggers some marty whitman nostalgia!

finally, congrats on leaving twitter. others that have left for substack greatly underutilize notes, and have thus gone mostly silent. its a chicken\egg problem, sometimes made worse by requiring emails just to like\comment, so leave that open.

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(kt, not ft)

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Jul 1
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I agree, I view laggards as just part of a portfolio, and they provided dividends that went to other holdings that went higher, or were reinvested. It's like if they were private investments inside Berkshire, he would not sell, just reinvest the profits elsewhere within Berkshire.

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Congrats on the performance!

Where do you own CBD? as an unlisted stock?

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