Im from UK and some great names in there. One you could look at is VP group, a specialist equipment rental company. They focus on Water, Rail & Housing, new government regulations means they are close the money printer when these large companies are forced to spend billions to upgrade the electricity grid, rail and water regulations. Look at AMP8 regulations, whilst they pay 7-9% dividend, paid dividends for over 30 years
Thanks for the lead, I will definitely have a look at this one. A good dividend is such a settler when you don't know how long these things could be out of favour.
Thanks for sharing, I really enjoy the article and the ideas. I am also in Ashmore. I am considering Unite Group, the only thing I do not like much is the management. I mean, in the REIT sector I always have the feeling that managements are a bit poor, but the price at the moment is discounting all the bad happening...
Kind of similar of what is happening with the Trusts of Infrastructure/Renewables, the discounts are pretty big, but managements pretty meh, although they are buying back a lot in some cases...
Thanks and I agree somewhat on Unite and the REITs. At least at decade lows in P/NAV for many of these companies you are finally being compensated where managements are lazy or feathering their nest.
I’m also a holder in Ashmore and I came to understand more about the seed investments in the most recent results. They're essentially funds started and owned by Ashmore themselves so they can begin selling them with a proven track record rather than just an idea. The holdings are usually rock solid equities and bonds. Most interesting is they not only adjust out movements in value but also any coupon, dividend or interest payments. These were 20m in the period and I'd say those are legit cash flows and should be included in an estimate of repeatable shareholder’s cash flows. So that’s an extra 20m they’ve voluntarily adjusted out.
Yes and I would back them to earn a significant return on the seed capital over time. There is no credit being given in the current price, so nice to have in the back pocket.
Congratz on you amazing returns this year and props on just keep talking about stocks that look absolutely hammered. On the UK side I like Jet2 and Domino pizza group.
I partly like following completely bombed out names, because if the expensive markets corrects, the best chance to avoid it is in something that has moved totally differently recently and has no froth to work off.
Cheers, I'm interested in Jet2, it could have made this list too.
That's probably the safe reaction, but I've noticed when all evidence points to straight down and to the right you are really open to positive surprises, like a bid at 600p or similar. I also have very little idea when big fish are finished selling as they don't have to file once they drop below 5% ownership. I like a set-up where “everybody knows” it's going down forever.
Mate, I hadn't come across it, but the chart looks good. I don't really screen, I add ideas as I come across them so thanks for the mention. Retail is a super tough one for me to understand though.
I get it. They have stores where they sell a lot of really cheap stuff. These are also in Germany and France I believe. Very bombed out but u never know how far a stonk can drop. Especially with government being seated by commies, which is the #1 issue for UK stonks imo.
I say this as someone “coffee canning” Russian stonks, but I tend to ignore the government of the time. If anything, successive governments showing poor economic leadership creates the set-up for an explosive recovery. I appreciate a re-rate on a short timeframe, but I genuinely try to buy things prepared to hold them for a decade which should outlast most economic downturns. Another reason why I like dividend payers.
I will definitely have a look at BME, there's a bargain price for everything.
Interesting about opening a CMC account. I hadn’t thought of that. Do they have all the AIM that IB don’t? Ironically CMC are themselves ludicrously cheap atm. They have a new product that lets you wrap stocks into a tax free scenario. You don’t own the stock of course but could be good for the little side bets . . .
I'm not sure about all of the AIM, but Myles Kuah mentioned he'd used them to buy some AIM stocks and they had Churchill. Thanks, I hadn't even considered CMC as a stock. Could you pitch the valuation in a couple of sentences?
Ok, that is very interesting. Thanks for that, I'll have a good look. This follows my observation that while the UK banks have re-rated significantly, the “other” financials, like funds and services still look very appealing.
Great stuff Guy, thank you for sharing these ideas, I will dive into them and let you know specific feedback if I have any.
In terms of other cheap UK names, I do own McBride and Supreme PLC (both more on the consumer side). You can find write-ups on McBride by Dave Waters (Alluvial Fund) and Supreme by Sven Klass (Financial Skeptic Substack). Also liked the pitch on IG Design Group by Smoak Capital. Supreme and IG Design are traded on AIM, so liquidity is questionable.
Beyond UK, I recently invested in Teamviewer and WW International (WeightWatchers), both of which are beaten-down fallen angels which most people would not touch these days. But for your contrarian approach, they might be interesting. I hope to publish soon on them on the Augustusville Substack.
Hey Carsten, thanks for the detailed reply. Glad you enjoyed it.
I will definitely look at the names you mentioned. I imagine this is what 2000 felt like- to ignore frothy US tech and buy boring businesses selling very cheaply elsewhere.
there have been several interweb posts on uk pubs that may be of interest.
its the usual land value and consolidation stuff but near record low share prices for a non-pandemic environment. at least the uk has reliable bad weather for centuries forcing consumers into these social spots!
glad you are avoiding paywall, as your posts often attract very good comment threads.
Hi, thanks for the pub lead. The rise in UK takeover activity in the last 18 months potentially makes these ripe for consolidation. Would be fun to research too:-)
Along adjacent lines I saw a pitch for Young & Co Brewerys recently that had a similar London land play aspect to it.
Agree, you could possibly throw a dartboard at the sector and do well. Vistry was a little too popular for my tastes and I've seen Bellway and Berkeley pitched elsewhere. My starting point for Barratt was when I saw it as a super high conviction holding of Phoenix Funds.
Im from UK and some great names in there. One you could look at is VP group, a specialist equipment rental company. They focus on Water, Rail & Housing, new government regulations means they are close the money printer when these large companies are forced to spend billions to upgrade the electricity grid, rail and water regulations. Look at AMP8 regulations, whilst they pay 7-9% dividend, paid dividends for over 30 years
Thanks for the lead, I will definitely have a look at this one. A good dividend is such a settler when you don't know how long these things could be out of favour.
Thanks for sharing, I really enjoy the article and the ideas. I am also in Ashmore. I am considering Unite Group, the only thing I do not like much is the management. I mean, in the REIT sector I always have the feeling that managements are a bit poor, but the price at the moment is discounting all the bad happening...
Kind of similar of what is happening with the Trusts of Infrastructure/Renewables, the discounts are pretty big, but managements pretty meh, although they are buying back a lot in some cases...
Thanks and I agree somewhat on Unite and the REITs. At least at decade lows in P/NAV for many of these companies you are finally being compensated where managements are lazy or feathering their nest.
I’m also a holder in Ashmore and I came to understand more about the seed investments in the most recent results. They're essentially funds started and owned by Ashmore themselves so they can begin selling them with a proven track record rather than just an idea. The holdings are usually rock solid equities and bonds. Most interesting is they not only adjust out movements in value but also any coupon, dividend or interest payments. These were 20m in the period and I'd say those are legit cash flows and should be included in an estimate of repeatable shareholder’s cash flows. So that’s an extra 20m they’ve voluntarily adjusted out.
Yes and I would back them to earn a significant return on the seed capital over time. There is no credit being given in the current price, so nice to have in the back pocket.
Thanks for some interesting ideas again!
Congratz on you amazing returns this year and props on just keep talking about stocks that look absolutely hammered. On the UK side I like Jet2 and Domino pizza group.
Keep up the good work.
Thank you Sir!
I partly like following completely bombed out names, because if the expensive markets corrects, the best chance to avoid it is in something that has moved totally differently recently and has no froth to work off.
Cheers, I'm interested in Jet2, it could have made this list too.
I'll wait off buying Churchill then
That's probably the safe reaction, but I've noticed when all evidence points to straight down and to the right you are really open to positive surprises, like a bid at 600p or similar. I also have very little idea when big fish are finished selling as they don't have to file once they drop below 5% ownership. I like a set-up where “everybody knows” it's going down forever.
Huh, no mention of BME ? Not cheap enough or u don't like the sector ?
Mate, I hadn't come across it, but the chart looks good. I don't really screen, I add ideas as I come across them so thanks for the mention. Retail is a super tough one for me to understand though.
I get it. They have stores where they sell a lot of really cheap stuff. These are also in Germany and France I believe. Very bombed out but u never know how far a stonk can drop. Especially with government being seated by commies, which is the #1 issue for UK stonks imo.
GLTA
I say this as someone “coffee canning” Russian stonks, but I tend to ignore the government of the time. If anything, successive governments showing poor economic leadership creates the set-up for an explosive recovery. I appreciate a re-rate on a short timeframe, but I genuinely try to buy things prepared to hold them for a decade which should outlast most economic downturns. Another reason why I like dividend payers.
I will definitely have a look at BME, there's a bargain price for everything.
Interesting about opening a CMC account. I hadn’t thought of that. Do they have all the AIM that IB don’t? Ironically CMC are themselves ludicrously cheap atm. They have a new product that lets you wrap stocks into a tax free scenario. You don’t own the stock of course but could be good for the little side bets . . .
I'm not sure about all of the AIM, but Myles Kuah mentioned he'd used them to buy some AIM stocks and they had Churchill. Thanks, I hadn't even considered CMC as a stock. Could you pitch the valuation in a couple of sentences?
EV is about £550M and the average FCF over the last 5 years is around £120M per year.
It’s a growing cash machine priced like it’s declining.
Ok, that is very interesting. Thanks for that, I'll have a good look. This follows my observation that while the UK banks have re-rated significantly, the “other” financials, like funds and services still look very appealing.
Right. Also check Jupiter Fund Management. Similarly cheap atm
Great stuff Guy, thank you for sharing these ideas, I will dive into them and let you know specific feedback if I have any.
In terms of other cheap UK names, I do own McBride and Supreme PLC (both more on the consumer side). You can find write-ups on McBride by Dave Waters (Alluvial Fund) and Supreme by Sven Klass (Financial Skeptic Substack). Also liked the pitch on IG Design Group by Smoak Capital. Supreme and IG Design are traded on AIM, so liquidity is questionable.
Beyond UK, I recently invested in Teamviewer and WW International (WeightWatchers), both of which are beaten-down fallen angels which most people would not touch these days. But for your contrarian approach, they might be interesting. I hope to publish soon on them on the Augustusville Substack.
Hey Carsten, thanks for the detailed reply. Glad you enjoyed it.
I will definitely look at the names you mentioned. I imagine this is what 2000 felt like- to ignore frothy US tech and buy boring businesses selling very cheaply elsewhere.
there have been several interweb posts on uk pubs that may be of interest.
its the usual land value and consolidation stuff but near record low share prices for a non-pandemic environment. at least the uk has reliable bad weather for centuries forcing consumers into these social spots!
glad you are avoiding paywall, as your posts often attract very good comment threads.
Hi, thanks for the pub lead. The rise in UK takeover activity in the last 18 months potentially makes these ripe for consolidation. Would be fun to research too:-)
Along adjacent lines I saw a pitch for Young & Co Brewerys recently that had a similar London land play aspect to it.
https://www.latticework.com/p/best-ideas-madrid-2025-arcos-dorados
Cheers. Homebuilders look good secularly
Agree, you could possibly throw a dartboard at the sector and do well. Vistry was a little too popular for my tastes and I've seen Bellway and Berkeley pitched elsewhere. My starting point for Barratt was when I saw it as a super high conviction holding of Phoenix Funds.